Picking Every Game: College Football Predictions, Week 6

Game of the Week

Florida State (3-2) at

Miami (4-0)

8 p.m. EST
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
ABC
Miami -3 — O/U 65.5

Sometimes a change of scenery makes all the difference in the world.

Folks at Georgia weren’t so happy with Mark Richt after last season. Despite Richt’s overall success during his 15 seasons with the Bulldogs, fans and administrators felt he should have done better. So they cut ties with Richt and brought in Kirby Smart. And Richt crawled off with his $4.1 million buyout and licked his wounds. Right?

Not exactly. Richt was quickly snapped up by Miami to replace Al Golden, who was fired after the Hurricanes were shellacked by Clemson, 58-0, last season. And Richt has quickly made the most of his new opportunity at his alma mater. The ‘Canes are 4-0 and playing with a ton of confidence. QB Brad Kaaya is playing every bit like the pro prospect that he was expected to be. RB Mark Walton is averaging more than 110 ypg, and has all-ACC potential. And Miami’s defense is largely controlling opponents, though Georgia Tech did manage to rack up more than 250 yards on the ground.

Florida State, meanwhile, has struggled. The Seminoles looked great in the second half of the season opener against Mississippi, but hasn’t looked as solid since. RB Dalvin Cook has finally emerged as the team’s leader, and the offense has mostly been able to score with some ease. However, Florida State’s defense has been porous, surrendering more than 34 points against all four FBS opponents this season.

Of course, on Saturday, the biggest concern will be the weather. Miami was fortunately left out of the biggest impact from Hurricane Matthew, but so much of the rest of the state will still be dealing with the aftermath of the storm by the opening kickoff. Even as I write this in northeast Florida, I’m looking out of my window at violently blowing branches and rain that’s whipping sideways. It puts a lot of perspective on things such as college football, which are – we have to admit – just games.

The players from both teams will be dealing with some thoughts and feelings about the effects of the storm, too. Many come from places like West Palm Beach, Jupiter and Jacksonville – places that just got whipped around by a major hurricane. And their thoughts and feelings may still be with their loved ones in those places. It’s impossible to know what impact that storm will have on the outcome of this game.

But all things being equal, I expect the Hurricanes to make a major statement about being the best team in the state of Florida at this point. Kaaya will exploit an unusually weak FSU secondary for two to three scores, and the ‘Canes will do just enough to neutralize any impact that Cook and the ‘Noles offense will have.

Prediction: Miami 34, Florida State 28

Result: Florida State 20, Miami 19

Record:
This week: SU – 32-20; ATS – 31-21; O/U – 31-21
Overall: SU – 312-89; ATS – 154-145-4; O/U – 159-138-6

Upsets are bold underlined
(Results in parentheses; wins are underlined; losses in italics)
* – Picks with extreme confidence ATS
^ – Picks with low confidence ATS

Wednesday, Oct. 5      
Matchup Time (ET) TV Coverage Prediction
Georgia Southern (-7) at Arkansas State (O/U 56.5) 8 p.m. ESPN2 Georgia Southern, 34-20
(Arkansas State 27, Georgia Southern 26)
Thursday, Oct. 6      
Matchup Time (ET) TV Coverage Prediction
Temple (+10) at Memphis (O/U 59.5) 8 p.m. ESPN Memphis, 34-23
(Memphis, 34-27)
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Louisiana Tech (O/U 65.5) 8 p.m. CBSSN Louisiana Tech, 38-35
(Louisiana Tech, 55-52)
Friday, Oct. 7      
Matchup Time (ET) TV Coverage Prediction
Clemson (-17) at Boston College (O/U 46) 7:30 p.m. ESPN Clemson, 31-10
(Clemson, 56-10)
Massachusetts (+7) at Old Dominion (O/U 57.5) 8 p.m. CUSA.TV Old Dominion, 34-20
(Old Dominion)
SMU (+17) at Tulsa (O/U 64) 8 p.m. ESPN2 Tulsa, 42-28
(Tulsa, 43-40)
Tulane (+13.5) at UCF (O/U 52.5) 8 p.m. ESPNU UCF, 35-24
(Postponed to Nov. 5)
Boise State (-17) at New Mexico (O/U 60) 9 p.m. CBSSN Boise State, 42-21
(Boise State, 49-21)
Saturday, Oct. 8      
Matchup Time (ET) TV Coverage Prediction
Cincinnati (-3) at Connecticut (O/U 49) 11:30 a.m. CBSSN Cincinnati, 27-20
(Connecticut, 20-9)
Auburn (-2.5) at Mississippi State (O/U 53) Noon SECN Auburn, 27-24
(Auburn, 38-14)
East Carolina (+18.5) at USF (O/U 67.5) Noon ESPNews USF, 45-20
(USF, 38-22)
Iowa (-1.5) at Minnesota (O/U 51) Noon ESPN2 Minnesota, 27-23
(Iowa, 14-7)
LSU (-3) at Florida (O/U 42) Noon ESPN LSU, 21-17
(Postponed indefinitely)
Maryland (-1) at Penn State (O/U 57) Noon BTN Maryland, 30-24
(Penn State, 38-14)
Notre Dame (+2.5) at N.C. State (O/U 68) Noon ABC NC State, 38-34
(NC State, 10-3)
Oklahoma (-10.5) vs. Texas (O/U 73) (at Dallas) Noon FS1 Oklahoma, 45-31
(Oklahoma, 45-40)
Southern Miss (-16.5) at UTSA (O/U 59) Noon ASN Southern Miss, 37-17
(UTSA, 55-32)
TCU (-29) at Kansas (O/U 66.5) Noon ESPNU TCU, 42-7
(TCU, 24-23)
Georgia Tech (+6.5) at Pittsburgh (O/U 53) 12:30 p.m. ACCN Pittsburgh, 31-27
(Pittsburgh, 37-34)
Bowling Green (+11.5) at Ohio (O/U 60.5) 2 p.m. ESPN3 Ohio, 34-24
(Ohio, 30-24)
Houston (-17) at Navy (O/U 54) 3 p.m. CBSSN Houston, 35-17
(Navy 46-40)
Miami (Ohio) (+8.5) at Akron (O/U 54) 3 p.m. ESPN3 Akron, 27-24
(Akron, 35-13)
Toledo (-17) at Eastern Michigan (O/U 67) 3 p.m. ESPN3 Toledo, 51-28
(Toledo, 35-20)
Air Force (-10.5) at Wyoming (O/U 55) 3:30 p.m. ROOT Sports Air Force, 27-20
(Wyoming, 35-26)
Army (+4) at Duke (O/U 49) 3:30 p.m. RSN Army, 27-24
(Duke, 13-6)
Ball State (+12.5) at Central Michigan (O/U 57) 3:30 p.m. ASN Central Michigan, 31-23
(Central Michigan, 24-21)
BYU (+6) at Michigan State (O/U 49) 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 Michigan State, 24-21
(BYU, 31-14)
Indiana (+29) at Ohio State (O/U 61) 3:30 p.m. ESPN Ohio State, 41-17
(Ohio State, 38-17)
Iowa State (+17) at Oklahoma State (O/U 64) 3:30 p.m. ESPNU Oklahoma State, 42-28
(Oklahoma State, 38-31)
Kent State (-1.5) at Buffalo (O/U 43) 3:30 p.m. ESPN3 Buffalo, 21-17
(Kent State, 44-20)
Purdue (+10.5) at Illinois (O/U 53.5) 3:30 p.m. BTN Illinois, 28-21
(Purdue, 34-31 OT)
Tennessee (+8) at Texas A&M (O/U 56) 3:30 p.m. CBSSN Texas A&M, 31-28 (Texas A&M, 45-38 2OT)
Texas State (+10.5) at Georgia State (O/U 60) 3:30 p.m. ESPN3 Georgia State, 27-14
(Georgia State, 41-21)
Virginia Tech (+2.5) at North Carolina (O/U 63) 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 Virginia Tech, 35-31
(Virginia Tech, 34-3)
Colorado (+5) at USC (O/U 60) 4 p.m. Pac-12N Colorado, 38-31
(USC, 21-17)
Vanderbilt (+3) at Kentucky (O/U 51) 4 p.m. SECN Kentucky, 17-10
(Kentucky, 20-13)
Hawaii (+3) at San Jose State (O/U 64) 4:30 p.m. Oceanic PPV Hawaii, 31-24
(Hawaii, 34-17)
Northern Illinois (+19.5) at Western Michigan (O/U 62.5) 6:30 p.m. CBSSN Western Michigan, 44-21
(Western Michigan, 45-30)
Alabama (-14) at Arkansas (O/U 51) 7 p.m. ESPN Alabama, 35-17
(Alabama, 49-30)
Fresno State (+9.5) at Nevada (O/U 54.5) 7 p.m. ESPN3 Nevada, 35-21
(Nevada, 27-22)
Idaho (+4.5) at ULM (O/U 58) 7 p.m. ESPN3 ULM, 27-20
(Idaho, 34-31)
Marshall (-10) at North Texas (O/U 63) 7 p.m. ASN Marshall, 34-20
(North Texas, 38-21)
Michigan (-27.5) at Rutgers (O/U 54.5) 7 p.m. ESPN2 Michigan, 51-7
(Michigan, 78-0)
Syracuse (+2.5) at Wake Forest (O/U 57) 7 p.m. RSN Wake Forest, 31-24
(Wake Forest, 28-9)
Texas Tech (+7) at Kansas State (O/U 71.5) 7 p.m. ESPNU Kansas State, 38-35
(Kansas State, 44-38)
Washington (-8.5) at Oregon (O/U 68.5) 7:30 p.m. FOX Washington, 44-27
(Washington, 70-21)
FIU (+5.5) at UTEP (O/U 50) 8 p.m. CUSA.TV UTEP, 23-14
(FIU, 35-21)
Florida State (+3) at Miami (Fla.) (O/U 65.5) 8 p.m. ABC Miami, 34-28
(Florida State, 20-19)
California (-12.5) at Oregon State (O/U 70) 9 p.m. Pac-12N California, 48-24
(Oregon State, 47-44 OT)
Arizona (+9.5) at Utah (O/U 54) 10 p.m. FS1 Utah, 28-21
(Utah 36-23)
Utah State (-6) at Colorado State (O/U 51) 10 p.m. CBSSN Utah State, 24-21
(Colorado State, 31-24)
UCLA (-10) at Arizona State (O/U 61.5) 10:30 p.m. ESPN2 UCLA, 34-27
(Arizona State, 23-20)
UNLV (+14) at San Diego State (O/U 57.5) 10:30 p.m. ESPNU San Diego State, 45-30
(San Diego State, 26-7)
Washington State (+7.5) at Stanford (O/U 57) 10:30 p.m. ESPN Stanford, 27-23
(Washington State, 42-16)
Sunday, Oct. 9      
Matchup Time (ET) TV Coverage Prediction
Charlotte (+14) at FAU (O/U 61.5) 3:30 p.m. CUSA.TV FAU, 31-20
Georgia (-7.5) at South Carolina (O/U 45.5) 7:30 p.m. SECN Georgia, 27-13
Copyright © 2016 Doug DeBolt
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About Doug DeBolt

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an administrator, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.
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