American Idol final more a coronation than a contest

The American Idol publicity machine is out in full force touting how close this final show is expected to be. Does this phrase sound familiar: “Closest voting ever…”

Really? How can we tell that the day of the show before a song has been sung, let alone a vote has been cast. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. For that matter, if you’re torn between the final American Idol performance show of the season and the Dancing With the Stars or Biggest Loser finales (both of which will be on at the same time), you should probably go ahead and just watch one of the other shows. (And don’t forget that The Voice and its third set of battle rounds follows Idol at 10 p.m. on NBC.) The bottom line at AI? What happens tonight won’t matter one flying fig. Why?

Because Scotty McCreery will win Season 10 in a landslide. Don’t mistake that statement for my support of the lad. I’m still not convinced one whit that the kid is good enough to have a career in the music industry. But according to all of the information in front of me, Scotty will dominate the voting even if he delivers all of his songs through a cardboard cutout.

You might be getting ready some rocks to throw at me, but before you do, consider these points.

1. What is the highest rated final performance show for a single contestant in the history of American Idol? That would be last season, with Crystal Bowersox. (Whatnottosing.com rates that as an average of 72.0 for her three songs.)

2. What is the lowest rated final performance show for a single contestant in the history of American Idol? That would also be last season, with Lee DeWyze. (Whatnottosing.com
rates that as an average of 41.67 for his three songs.)

Anyone remember how that turned out? At last count, Mr. DeWyze was still the champion of Season 9, and Ms. Bowersox was still outselling him on the Billboard charts. Even so, he did win in spite of delivering a collection of phonic turds in his last three performances.

Tonight, Scotty will take the stage for the most meaningless songs he’ll ever perform. He could fart one, burp the next and play the third on the kazoo. His fans will credit it as musical genius and still vote for him. Evidence, you say? OK…

A. On every message board we track, Scotty has double the discussion of Lauren, and on most he’s the hottest topic.

B. In the last week on those boards, Lauren is still not even the second-hottest topic of discussion. In most corners, James Durbin and Haley Reinhart are still outpacing her for new threads and messages.

C. On Dial Idol, Scotty has been reaching double-digit busy signals for weeks, and last week had almost 25 percent busies for the night. By comparison, Lauren had almost 8 percent busies.

D. On Facebook, Scotty’s three largest groups have a combined 285,000 followers. Lauren’s three largest groups have about 112,000 followers, which is still about 69,000 behind what James Durbin has as the second-most followed Idol.

E. On the Hollywood Stock Exchange, Scotty rocketed up $1.84 per share in the last week and is now priced at $23.25. (The highest price possible is $24, which is paid out for the ultimate winner. Oh yeah, it’s all virtual cash, so don’t get any ideas.) Lauren went up $1.21 and is priced at $22.19. (The runner-up shares will pay at $22 each.)

F. Las Vegas odds may look close, but they’re anything but. One of the closest odds is Bodog, which rates Scotty as 1-to-5, and Lauren at 3-to-1. That’s the Vegas equivalent of a sure thing. Basically, they’re giving Scotty an 83 percent chance of winning, while giving Lauren only a 25 percent chance. Yes, that adds up to 108 percent, but talk to Bodog.

G. And if Lauren goes first tonight (Scotty went first last week) her chances will plummet dramatically. Six of the previous nine winners sang last. Last season, Lee led off and Crystal sang last and he still won in spite of sucking. That should tell you everything you need to know about the importance of performance quality at this point of the season.

Last week I told you that Scotty will end up as the lowest-rated winner in the show’s history. Mark that one down. Tonight he’ll be completely outperformed by Lauren Alaina. But when the results are revealed tomorrow night, it simply won’t make a difference. Mr. Creepy-Eyes will claim the title anyway.

Final 2 (Odds to Win)

1. Scotty McCreery (1/2)
2. Lauren Alaina (9/4)

Let me know what you think about these odds? Do you agree? Who will win? Who should win? Remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

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About Douglas Blaine

Capnpen is a writer who was a newspaper and magazine journalist in a previous life. A college journalism major, he now works as an administrator, but gets his writing fix by blogging about a variety of topics, including politics, religion, movies and television. When he's not working or blogging, Capnpen spends time with his family, plays a little golf (badly) and loves to learn about virtually anything.
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